A mere eight weeks ago that Morgan Rogers found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered while his coach berated him over missing a pass in behind. At that point, as the club endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained if his performances were an indicator or the source for the team's more general malaise.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
In the latest match, however, the touchline reaction was far more favourable. After Rogers drilled in his second strike to restore his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician ripped off his winter coat, spread his arms and bellowed. The Birmingham club were on their way to ten wins in a row and despite not winning any of their first six matches, are somehow just three points off the leaders Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Genuine Hopefuls?
This is a particularly tough query to resolve. History, the perceived status of Villa, suggests not. Additionally, they've rarely been entirely convincing during this run, even as the wins have accumulated.
As per statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the side registered an expected goals figure significantly higher than their opponents. For a team that have strung together a ten-match winning streak, Villa appear strangely fragile – but right now the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Rogers Recipe
The prevailing tactic looks like to exchange chances with rivals and wait for Rogers to bail them out with a couple of precise efforts. It happened against Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and again against Manchester United.
The initial strike came from a superb shot, bent just inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of his first as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Can It Last?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, Manchester United managed more efforts and more shots on target. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those games.
Regression to the mean could be the biggest rival Villa must confront over the coming weeks. The forward, surely, cannot maintain thrashing his shots past despairing goalkeepers forever.
Potential for Growth
Could it be a different scenario in which, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures could still rediscover their best form.
- The main striker could start adding to his goal tally.
- The winger may rediscover the force he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs are set to come back from the treatment room, strengthening a sometimes shaky backline.
Maybe within that lies the possibility of a title challenge, but they surely cannot keep relying on one man.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, this is a surprise. Few believed Aston Villa would sit in the top three for the holidays. And certainly back in October, nobody thought the midfielder by the end of the year would be spearheading a title charge and appearing as an essential England player.
The current run must be cherished precisely because it feels so unlikely. As Rogers faced the Villa faithful after the match conducting the cheers, it was clear to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.
