A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the other's arguments."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
